Holiday Bowl Preview and Prediction

Holiday Bowl
Friday, Jan. 2| 8 p.m. ET | FOX
Snapdragon Stadium — San Diego, Calif.
Arizona (9-3) vs. SMU (8-4)

Line: SMU –1.5 | O/U: 51.5

The Setup

A potential high-scoring showdown features Brent Brennan’s surging Arizona squad against Rhett Lashlee’s resilient SMU team in this Big 12 vs. ACC clash—the first-ever meeting. The Holiday Bowl often delivers points (over hitting in 8 straight years, average ~60+ total since 2016), setting up an entertaining finale to the non-CFP slate.

Arizona Wildcats

Head coach Brent Brennan capped a strong second year with Arizona’s turnaround (from 4-8 in 2024), leaning on dual-threat QB Noah Fifita (efficient passer with mobility) and a reloaded receiving corps after the departure of star Tetairoa McMillan (NFL Draft). RB Quali Conley powers the ground game, while the defense ranks solidly in takeaways. Minimal major opt-outs reported keep the Wildcats mostly intact and motivated for a 10th win in sunny home-state vibes.

SMU Mustangs

Head coach Rhett Lashlee guided SMU to bowl eligibility in their second ACC season, boasting a top-20 scoring offense with QB Kevin Jennings (dynamic playmaker, strong in clutch spots) and WR Roderick Daniels Jr. as key threats. The run game and opportunistic D provide balance. Some mid-level opt-outs and portal hits thin depth slightly, but core remains motivated for Lashlee’s bowl success (2-0 prior).

Key Storylines

Offensive fireworks — Both top-25 in scoring/yards per play; Arizona’s Fifita-led attack vs. SMU’s Jennings explosiveness.
Defensive bend-don’t-break — Wildcats strong in red zone; Mustangs vulnerable to big plays but force turnovers.
Roster health — Arizona mostly full; SMU minor concerns (line near pick’em in some spots).
Trends — Holiday Bowls high-scoring (over in 8 straight); O/U ~52.5-53.
Form — Arizona on multi-game win streak; SMU competitive in ACC play.

The Pick

Arizona enters as slight favorites (~ -2.5 to -3 points) thanks to Fifita’s poise, balanced attack post-McMillan adjustments, and relative health. The Wildcats exploit big plays for a comfortable cover in a track meet.

Prediction: Arizona 38, SMU 31.

About Douglas Blaine

Capnpen is a writer who was a newspaper and magazine journalist in a previous life. A college journalism major, he now works as an English teacher, but gets his writing fix by blogging about a variety of topics, including politics, religion, movies and television. When he's not working or blogging, Capnpen spends time with his family, plays a little golf (badly) and loves to learn about virtually anything.

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