Picking Every Bowl: First Responder Bowl, Air Force vs. Louisville

ServPro First Responder Bowl
December 28
Air Force (9-3) vs. Louisville (6-6), Gerald J. Ford Stadium, University Park, Texas, 3:15 p.m., ESPN
Louisville -1 – O/U 54.5

Generally, I say that one-dimensional teams tend to struggle in bowl games, and no team is more one-dimensional than Air Force. The Falcons are the nation’s best rushing team, but are also the second-worst passing team. Forget the over-under on the game. Try and predict whether or not Air Force passes for more or less than 100 yards. The Falcons only did that four times this year and didn’t even throw a pass in the season finale against UNLV (which they won 48-14). If Air Force’s running game is working, they won’t even bother passing, and since Louisville is only average against the run, it’s a good bet that the Falcons will throw fewer than five passes and will complete only two or three of those. Louisville is fairly balanced on offense, but if Air Force’s success against the run holds true, the Cardinals won’t have a ton of success on the ground. That will force them to the air, and remember that this is “Air Force.” The Falcons are also strong against the pass, ranking 20th in the country there. Forget the strength of schedule — Air Force is more than up to this task.
Prediction: Air Force 27-14
Result: Air Force 31-28

Record:
Bowl season: SU – 12-7; ATS – 9-10-0; O/U – 9-10-0
Overall: SU – 604-188; ATS – 376-330-6; O/U – 340-360-12

About Douglas Blaine

Capnpen is a writer who was a newspaper and magazine journalist in a previous life. A college journalism major, he now works as an English teacher, but gets his writing fix by blogging about a variety of topics, including politics, religion, movies and television. When he's not working or blogging, Capnpen spends time with his family, plays a little golf (badly) and loves to learn about virtually anything.

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