Sun Bowl Preview and Prediction

Sun Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 31| 2 p.m. ET | CBS
Sun Bowl Stadium — El Paso, Texas
Arizona State (8-4) vs. Duke (8-5)

Line: Duke –3.5 | O/U: 47.5

The Setup

A rematch of the 2014 Sun Bowl (ASU won 36-31) pits Kenny Dillingham’s resilient Sun Devils against Manny Diaz’s ACC champion Blue Devils in the nation’s second-oldest bowl. Heavy opt-outs turn this into a depth test under sunny El Paso skies—expect a gritty, lower-possession game as backups step up in the desert heat.

Arizona State Sun Devils

Head coach Kenny Dillingham has the Sun Devils bowling after a strong Big 12 campaign, but the roster is hit hard: 19 players from the two-deep unavailable (opt-outs, portal, injuries). QB Sam Leavitt (portal/injured), star WR Jordyn Tyson (opt-out), RB Raleek Brown (opt-out), and others sit, leaving veteran backup Jeff Sims (sixth-year dual-threat) under center. The pass rush and young playmakers remain strengths, with Dillingham’s energy keeping motivation high for a potential statement win.

Duke Blue Devils

Head coach Manny Diaz guides the ACC champs (first title since 1989) with a mostly intact offense, led by returning QB Darian Mensah (confirmed back for 2026) and key skill players. The defense loses EDGE Vincent Anthony Jr., CB Chandler Rivers, and OT Brian Parker II, but core contributors like WR Cooper Barkate (also returning) provide continuity. Low major opt-outs keep Duke motivated to cap a historic season with nine wins.

Key Storylines

Attrition disparity — ASU’s massive losses (QB, top WR/RB, ~19 total) vs. Duke’s targeted absences; Blue Devils retain offensive firepower.
QB contrast — Mensah’s poise vs. Sims’ experience in a depleted ASU attack.
Style matchup — Duke’s balanced offense vs. ASU’s disrupted rhythm; Sun Bowls trend mid-scoring recently.
Rematch/history — ASU won the 2014 meeting; El Paso crowd often boosts underdogs.
Trends — O/U ~47.5-49.5, with models projecting lower due to ASU’s holes; recent Sun Bowls competitive.

The Pick

Duke enters as favorites (~ -3 points) thanks to superior roster health and Mensah’s presence outweighing ASU’s coaching edge. The Blue Devils control tempo and exploit the shorthanded Sun Devils for a solid win.

Prediction: Duke 30, Arizona State 20.

About Douglas Blaine

Capnpen is a writer who was a newspaper and magazine journalist in a previous life. A college journalism major, he now works as an English teacher, but gets his writing fix by blogging about a variety of topics, including politics, religion, movies and television. When he's not working or blogging, Capnpen spends time with his family, plays a little golf (badly) and loves to learn about virtually anything.

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