Memphis (8–4) vs. NC State (7–5)
When/Where: Friday, Dec. 19 • 2:30 p.m. ET • Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, FL) • TV: ESPN
Odds: NC State -4.5 • O/U 58.5 (Memphis ML +154)
The matchup at a glance
This one has “points” written all over it. Memphis can score in bunches, and NC State has been vulnerable through the air at times—exactly the kind of profile that can turn a bowl into a track meet.
The big wrinkle: Memphis arrives with coaching turbulence. Ryan Silverfield is out (headed to Arkansas), and defensive backs coach Reggie Howard is serving as the interim head coach for the bowl.
That can matter… or it can not matter at all if the skill guys show up locked in and the quarterback is healthy.
Memphis: explosive, balanced, and built to stress defenses
The Tigers’ offense runs through veteran dual-threat QB Brendon Lewis: 2,567 passing yards, 15 TD, 6 INT, and 618 rushing yards with 9 rushing TDs.
That’s a lot of ways to hurt you, especially when you add a deep, productive run game:
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Sutton Smith: 669 rushing yards (7 TD)
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Greg Desrosiers Jr.: 563 rushing yards (7 TD)
Out wide, Cortez Braham Jr. is the headliner (889 yards, 8 TD), and Jamari Hawkins adds big-play juice (591 yards).
If there’s a soft spot, it’s the Tigers’ pass defense, which has had issues (even while producing interceptions earlier in the season).
NC State: a steadier “Power 5” build with real punch on offense
NC State brings a strong offensive spine into Tampa, starting with QB CJ Bailey (2,884 passing yards, 23 TD, 9 INT).
And the Wolfpack aren’t one-dimensional—RB Hollywood Smothers has been a true engine (939 rushing yards).
Through the air, Terrell Anderson leads the way (637 receiving yards), and defensively, LB Caden Fordham has been everywhere (130 tackles).
The key for NC State: can they get enough stops (or takeaways) against a Memphis attack that’s comfortable scoring from anywhere?
What decides it
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NC State’s pass defense vs. Memphis’ QB/run-option stress. If Lewis is healthy and the Tigers stay on schedule, Memphis can put NC State in conflict all afternoon.
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Turnovers. In a game projected around the high 50s, one short field is often the difference.
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The coaching/continuity factor. Bowl games can swing fast when one staff is patching roles together on the fly.
Prediction
Memphis’ offense is the scariest unit on the field, but I’ll lean NC State to win a close one—slightly more stable structure, and the line suggests the Wolfpack are a small step stronger on a neutral field.
NC State 34, Memphis 30
