CFP National Championship
January 10
Alabama (13-1) vs. Georgia (13-1), Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, 8 p.m., ESPN
Georgia -2.5– O/U 52
At long last, we’re down to this. There’s so much talk about expanding the College Football Playoff to eight, 12 or 16 teams, and I agree 100 percent that eventually needs to happen. In many years, a playoff like that might generate a surprising matchup in the final game, but in this season, a playoff of any size was almost certain to pair up these two teams. Alabama vs. Georgia, the sequel. It was inevitable, and it’s finally here.
In the first meeting of these two, the Crimson Tide did a nice job of tricking us into thinking that maybe they were a full step behind the Bulldogs. The deception even fooled the Bulldogs, who spend most of the SEC Championship Game trying to figure out how to stop both Alabama’s offense and defense. The Bulldogs ultimately scored 24 points against the Tide — enough to win on most days — but the 41 points surrendered by Georgia’s defense were shocking, at the very least. Outside of that one day in December, the most points given up by the Bulldogs was less than half that (17, to be exact, scored by Tennessee in a lopsided Georgia win).
There’s not a lot of mystery about what both teams will attempt. Alabama will rely heavily on Heisman winner Bryce Young to lead a balanced offense that runs for 200 yards and passes for close to 325 yards per game. He made Georgia look silly in the last meeting, but the Bulldogs have had more than a month to lick their wounds and figure out what went wrong. It’s doubtful that he’ll be able to be as successful this time, just as it’s also doubtful that the Bulldogs will be able to completely solve him and shut him down.
On the other side, Georgia quarterback Stetson Bennett leads an almost perfectly balanced offense — 238 yards rushing and 226 yards passing. Georgia clearly needs to run the ball to be successful, so Alabama will try and duplicate its success in the previous game, where it held Georgia to just 109 rushing yards and forced Bennett to the air. Yes, he threw for 340 yards, but he also threw two interceptions. If the Tide can repeat that pattern, this will be their day again.
While conventional wisdom says that it’s unwise to pick against Alabama in a championship game, it’s also inconceivable that the Tide will be able to do everything they did a second time, or that Georgia will let that Tide roll over them with seemingly relative ease. Bennett and the Dawgs will correct the turnover problems and force Alabama to complete long drives to get its points. And Georgia’s defense will find ways to dial up pressure on Young and make him dial up some Heisman-worthy moments. It will be a titanic battle — one that any real college football fan will make sure to watch from beginning to end. In 26 meetings between Nick Saban and his former assistants, the master has only fallen to a pupil one time. Kirby Smart has closed that gap with these Bulldogs. It’s the best team he’s fielded, and maybe one of the best he’ll ever have. Forget the conventional wisdom. I picked the Bulldogs the first time, and that team shows up this time.
Prediction: Georgia 31-27
Results: Georgia 33-18
Predictably, I won the straight up and spread — and lost the over/under by a point. Oh yeah, and Georgia finally won the national championship. The Bulldogs really were the best team in college football all season, and they proved it tonight by harassing Bryce Young consistently. Late in the game, Alabama was driving to try and win when pressure forced an off-target throw from Young which Georgia intercepted and ran back for a decisive score. Nice guys do sometimes finish first as Georgia QB Stetson Bennett was named the game’s offensive MVP.
Record:
Bowl season: SU – 27-13; ATS – 23-16-1; O/U – 15-25-0
Overall: SU – 619-194; ATS – 390-336-7; O/U – 346-375-12
Copyright © 2022 by Doug DeBolt.
