Vrbo Citrus Bowl
January 1
Iowa (12-1) vs. Kentucky (12-1), Camping World Stadium, Orlando, Fla., 1 p.m., ABC
Kentucky -3 – O/U 44
Will the real Iowa Hawkeyes and Kentucky Wildcats please step up? Both of these teams had moments of greatness this year, but both had moments of head-scratching frustration. Kentucky was 6-0 going into the matchup against Georgia, but then dropped its next three games. The Wildcats finished with three wins, but none of those teams were much of a challenge. Iowa, meanwhile, started the season looking like a contender before dropping back-to-back games against Purdue and Wisconsin. The Hawkeyes seemed to recover by feasting on lower-rung Big Ten programs, but then ran into a Michigan buzzsaw in the conference championship game. It’s hard to say who we’ll be seeing today, but the “real” Kentucky seems quite a bit better than the “real” Iowa, especially in terms of offense. The Hawkeyes, frankly, aren’t good there — and that was with all-conference running back Tyler Goodson, who is the game’s notable opt-out. Without Goodson, Iowa will be hard-pressed to move the ball on a decent Wildcat defense that allows only 117 yards on the ground. Iowa’s passing offense is one of the worst in the country, so if they’re not running, they’re not scoring. Iowa’s strength is defense, so Kentucky will struggle to move the ball as well. The big question is, will the total score go above the insanely over/under of 44. I’m wrong more often than not about this, so take my pick with a grain of salt, but I think this is a defensive battle that stays right around 40 points — and, of course, the Wildcats come out on top.
Prediction: Kentucky 23-17
Result: Kentucky 20-17
Record:
Bowl season: SU – 23-11; ATS – 19-14-1; O/U – 15-19-0
Overall: SU – 615-192; ATS – 386-334-7; O/U – 346-369-12
Copyright © 2022 by Doug DeBolt.
