Picking Every Bowl: Gasparilla Bowl, Florida vs. UCF

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
December 23
Florida (6-6) vs. UCF (8-4), Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Fla., 7 p.m., ESPN
Florida -7 – O/U 57.5

On the surface, Florida would seem like an easy pick to win this game handily. But the surface doesn’t tell the whole story. Florida definitely has more talent on its roster than does UCF, but the Gators haven’t played like the Gators this year, and landing in the Gasparilla Bowl isn’t where they envisioned ending their season when it started in August. UCF, on the other hand, is stoked to be playing in this game against this opponent. Yes, the Knights are typically poised for a better result than 8-4, but playing the mighty Florida Gators with a chance to come out as the “best team in the state of Florida” is plenty of motivation for a team that desperately wants respect from the Sunshine State’s more established programs. Neither team will be at full strength, particular Florida, which has key players on both offense and defense entering the transfer portal. The biggest key is at quarterback, where presumptive starter Anthony Richardson is out after having knee surgery. In his place will be former starter Emory Jones, who was last seen throwing three interceptions in the first half against Florida State. Jones will be motivated to put on a good show for whoever his next team will be once this game is finished. (He is also entering the transfer portal.) The problem is that Jones can’t re-learn the quarterback position that quickly. On average, he throws an interception every 24 passes — more than any other starting quarterback in the country. If he uses his arm, the Gators are at risk because he’s likely to throw at least one interception during the game. If he doesn’t, the Gators are one-dimensional and easy to stop. And that’s not even taking into account a suspect Florida defense or the fact that the Gators are playing with a lame-duck, interim coaching staff that will be gone as soon as the game ends. Either way, there’s too much uncertainty in play to think that the Gators will either cover the spread or win outright.
Prediction: UCF 24-21
Prediction: UCF 29-17
Everything I said in the prediction, except Emory Jones didn’t throw an interception. He also didn’t throw a touchdown, but he did overthrow several wide open receivers, two of which would have walked in for the score. On the other side, UCF played with passion and fire (Florida should take notes, because that’s what it looks like to want to win). Mikey Keene was efficient and didn’t overthrow Ryan O’Keefe on a 54-yard touchdown bomb. Isaiah Bowser was a workhorse, rushing 35 times for 155 yards and two scores, and O’Keefe added four more runs for 110 yards. The good news for Florida? The season is over and the Billy Napier era has official started.

Record:
Bowl season: SU – 8-7; ATS – 5-10-0; O/U – 7-8-0
Overall: SU – 602-189; ATS – 374-331-6; O/U – 340-359-12

About Douglas Blaine

Capnpen is a writer who was a newspaper and magazine journalist in a previous life. A college journalism major, he now works as an English teacher, but gets his writing fix by blogging about a variety of topics, including politics, religion, movies and television. When he's not working or blogging, Capnpen spends time with his family, plays a little golf (badly) and loves to learn about virtually anything.

View all posts by Douglas Blaine →