Picking Every Bowl: Armed Forces Bowl, Army vs. Missouri

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Army (8-4) vs. Missouri (6-6), Amon Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, Texas, 8 p.m., ESPN
Army -6.5 – O/U 54.5

If you like high-flying offenses and lots of downfield passes … this game is not for you. Army is the second-best team in the country when it comes to picking up rushing yardage (287 ypg), but the Cadets also have a sneaky passing attack that can catch you by surprise. They will match up against a Missouri defense that was the worst in the SEC and 124th in the nation (out of 130 teams) against the run. Missouri gives up 5.48 yards per run, which is more than even Army gains per play (4.9 yards). On the other side of the ball, Missouri’s best weapon, RB Tyler Badie, is opting out of the game to prepare for the NFL draft. He will be replaced by sixth-year senior Dawson Downing and a committee of younger running backs. At QB, the Tigers will go with sophomore Brady Cook over Conner Bazelak, who struggled down the stretch. Given the spring game look that Missouri’s offense will have, combined with the strength of the Army running attack and Missouri’s inability to stop the run, it’s wise to pick the Cadets in this one. But also given that Army hasn’t beaten a Power Five opponent in more than four years, it’s also wise to hedge my bets and call it a close one.
Prediction: Army 28-24
Result: Army 24-22
Why is it that the only people who don’t realize the truth about the prevent defense are the people in position to use (or not use) it? Missouri owned the first half and took a 16-7 lead into the locker room. But then Army came out on fire and controlled the tempo of the game on both sides of the ball. The Cadets led 21-16 going into the final four minutes, but then played it safe on offense and went into a prevent defense when Missouri got the ball with less than three minutes remaining. QB Brady Cook picked apart what Army was giving away and marched in for the go-ahead score with 1:20 left in the game. Luckily for Army, the game didn’t end there. The Cadets successfully used the pass to move into field goal range (aided by an odd facemask penalty) and Cole Talley hit the game-winning field goal as time expired, giving Army its first victory over a Power Five opponent since November 2017.

Record:
Bowl season: SU – 7-6; ATS – 4-9-0; O/U – 6-7-0
Overall: SU – 601-188; ATS – 373-330-6; O/U – 339-358-12

About Douglas Blaine

Capnpen is a writer who was a newspaper and magazine journalist in a previous life. A college journalism major, he now works as an English teacher, but gets his writing fix by blogging about a variety of topics, including politics, religion, movies and television. When he's not working or blogging, Capnpen spends time with his family, plays a little golf (badly) and loves to learn about virtually anything.

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