AFC Wild Card: Buffalo at Jacksonville

AFC Wild Card Game
Sunday, Jan. 11| 1 p.m. ET | CBS
Everbank Stadium — Jacksonville, Fla.
Buffalo (12-5) at Jacksonville (13-4)

Line: Buffalo –1 | O/U: 52

The Setup

The Jaguars, fresh off an eight-game win streak and their first AFC South title since 2022, host the battle-tested Bills in a rematch of their 2017 wild-card upset (Jaguars won 10-3). Buffalo seeks revenge and their first road playoff win since 1993, while Jacksonville aims to build on their momentum. Expect a physical, high-stakes battle with Josh Allen’s arm and legs clashing against a stingy Jaguars defense.

Buffalo Bills

Head coach Sean McDermott has the Bills as the No. 6 seed, entering with a 5-1 finish despite late-season injuries. QB Josh Allen (over 4,000 passing yards, 30+ TDs) is fully healthy after resting his foot in Week 18, making him a dual-threat nightmare. RB James Cook (NFL rushing leader, 1,621 yards) powers the ground game, but injuries to WRs and secondary (e.g., CB Maxwell Hairston out, LB Terrel Bernard questionable) thin depth. The defense has been inconsistent against the run but forces turnovers. Motivation is sky-high for a deep run.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Head coach Liam Coen has transformed the Jaguars into a top AFC contender (13-4 record), with QB Trevor Lawrence (MVP-caliber, 38 total TDs) leading an explosive offense (top-10 scoring). RB Travis Etienne Jr. (1,000+ rushing yards) and WR Parker Washington (recent hot streak) provide balance. The defense ranks No. 1 in run defense and generates sacks/turnovers. Minimal injuries keep Jacksonville full strength and riding home momentum.

Key Storylines

QB duel → Allen’s elite dual-threat (30+ TDs, rushing ability) vs. Lawrence’s hot streak (7 straight multi-TD games).
Run defense → Jaguars No. 1 run D vs. Cook’s rushing title; Bills vulnerable if Etienne exploits gaps.
Attrition → Bills missing key secondary/LB pieces; Jaguars mostly healthy.
Trends → Jaguars 8 straight wins; Bills 0-5 road playoff under McDermott. O/U ~51.5, with models projecting mid-50s.
History → Jaguars 2-0 playoff vs. Bills (1996, 2017); series tied 10-10 overall.

The Pick

Jaguars enter as slight underdogs (~ +1 to +2 points) despite home advantage and momentum. Lawrence’s form and elite run D neutralize Cook, while the Bills’ injuries limit big plays. Jacksonville pulls the home upset.

Prediction: Jaguars 31, Bills 24.

About Douglas Blaine

Capnpen is a writer who was a newspaper and magazine journalist in a previous life. A college journalism major, he now works as an English teacher, but gets his writing fix by blogging about a variety of topics, including politics, religion, movies and television. When he's not working or blogging, Capnpen spends time with his family, plays a little golf (badly) and loves to learn about virtually anything.

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