New Orleans Bowl Preview and Prediction

New Orleans Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 23| 5:30 p.m. ET | ESPN
Caesars Superdome — New Orleans, La.

-Southern Mississippi (8-4) vs. Westen Kentucky (8-4)
Line: Western Kentucky -1.5 | O/U: 58.5

The Big Picture

This one feels like a classic “evenly matched, weird bowl game” where the crowd might matter more than people expect. Southern Miss is the closer trip, and it’s reasonable to expect a Golden Eagles-leaning building, especially compared to WKU traveling in from Bowling Green. (Not LSU-at-home loud, but loud enough to tilt a close game.)

On paper, both teams have similar profiles: solid records, not many headline wins, and a lot of “took care of business” against teams they should beat. WKU’s most notable result is that 10–13 loss at LSU — a legit résumé-builder even in defeat.
Southern Miss doesn’t have a signature win, but the 35–42 loss at South Alabama stands out as the kind of road game that shows you can trade punches.

Western Kentucky: two-headed offense, no single “the guy”

WKU’s identity this year is that it doesn’t hinge on one star — it hinges on who’s hot.

Quarterback (true 1A / 1B):

Maverick McIvor: 1,863 pass yards, 12 TD
Rodney Tisdale Jr.: 1,367 pass yards, 9 TD

Running game (also a split):

Marvis Parrish: 511 rushing yards
La’Vell Wright: 460 rushing yards and 10 rushing TDs

Receivers (two main targets):

Matthew Henry: 48 catches, 762 yards, 6 TD
K.D. Hutchinson: 61 catches, 619 yards, 3 TD

WKU defensive notes (production, but not a single “face” of the unit)

If you’re looking for reliable names on defense, start with the tackle magnets and the ball-hawks:

Jaylen Wester: 94 total tackles
Jaylen Lewis: 68 total tackles, 2 INT
Harper Holloman: 2.0 sacks, 1 INT

Southern Miss: more balanced, defined leaders

Southern Miss looks more like a team with clear offensive pillars — and that’s a big reason your lean makes sense.

Quarterback (the engine):

Braylon Braxton: 2,795 pass yards, 23 TD

Running back (featured production):

Jeffery Pittman: 640 rushing yards, 8 rushing TD

Top receiving threats:

Elijah Metcalf: 52 catches, 677 yards
Carl Chester: 30 catches, 532 yards, 6 TD
Micah Davis: 28 catches, 393 yards, 5 TD

Southern Miss defensive difference-makers

This is where Southern Miss has the clearest “names you can write in ink”:

Chris Jones: 127 tackles, 7.5 TFL, 3.5 sacks
J’Mond Tapp: 11.5 TFL, 7.5 sacks
Josh Moten: 5 interceptions
Ian Foster: 3 INT with 171 return yards and 2 TDs

Two games to keep in mind

WKU at LSU (L 10–13): WKU proved it can play a tight, physical game against a bigger brand.
Southern Miss at South Alabama (L 35–42): Southern Miss showed offensive firepower in the loss to South Alabama, but it was still a missed opportunity against a comparable opponent they likely should have beaten.

How the game tilts

If WKU hits the right combo (McIvor or Tisdale + Parrish/Wright) and plays clean, it can absolutely win this. But Southern Miss feels like the team with clearer offensive leadership (Braxton/Pittman) and the defense that has more proven playmakers (Moten, Foster, Tapp, Jones) — which matters in a tight bowl where one turnover or one sack on 3rd-and-7 flips the whole script. Amazon Web Services, Inc.+1

Pick

Southern Miss 23, Western Kentucky 20