FCS Championship Game
January 8
Montana State (11-2) vs. North Dakota State (13-1), Toyota Stadium, Frisco, Texas, noon, ESPN2
North Dakota State -7.5– O/U 41.5

All we heard for decades was that a playoff for Division IA college football was impossible and that bowl games were the only way to select a champion. And while Division I-A (now FBS) has a playoff, it’s still four teams and is selected by a committee that doesn’t include every conference champion. Meanwhile, Division I-AA (now FCS) has staged a legitimate playoff every year since 1978, and the result is a true champion that leaves no doubt which team reigns supreme at the end of the year. It started with four teams for a few years, but had expanded to 16 teams by 1986. Since 2013, the playoff has included 24 teams, all of which manage to handle final exams, injuries and the expenses of travel.

In many years, the top two seeds advance to the title game, but this year, eighth-seeded Montana State stomped on top-seeded, undefeated Sam Houston State (the defending champion) in the third round and has won each of its three playoff games by at least 14 points. Other than an season opening loss to Wyoming, the Bobcats have only lost to rival Montana in the regular season finale. Meanwhile, North Dakota State enters the championship with only a regular season loss to South Dakota State, which was one of last season’s championship game finalists. The Bison are more than familiar with this territory, having played — and won — in the FCS Championship Game eight out of the last 10 years. Their status as a sizeable favorite in this year’s game doesn’t seem to be based on the ability of the two teams, but the fact that the Bison have won by at least that many points in six of their eight previous appearances (during which they won by an average of 15 points).

This season, both teams are among the nation’s best in both offense and defense. The Bison outpace the Bobcats in most categories, but by only a slender margin. North Dakota State outscored its opponents by an average 33.8-11.2, while Montana State’s margin was 30.0-13.4. The key statistic there is on defense. These are the top two defenses in FCS, which is why the over/under is so insanely low (41.5 points). The offensive and defensive tendencies of both teams are likely to keep this as a low-scoring affair. Both teams like to set up the pass by establishing a strong rushing attack. But both sides are extremely stingy against the run. Montana State allows only 108 yards per game on the ground, while North Dakota State averages a crazy 83 yards per game against the rush. Things aren’t much more free through the air, Where the Bison have allowed only 11 passing touchdowns to the Bobcats’ 12.

Almost everything points toward a North Dakota State win in this game. They have a slightly better offense, a slightly better defense, more experience on both sides of the ball and a ton more experience at this stage of the season. And yet, something tells me that Montana State is up to this challenge. The Bobcats were not phased by playing Sam Houston State on its own turf, and they weren’t intimidated by playing last year’s runner-up in the next round. Montana State’s defense can be exploited by a strong passing attack, but the Bobcats are opportunistic when it comes to turnovers. North Dakota State isn’t scoring points at a rapid pace, but they are keeping other teams out of the endzone better than any other team in FCS.

This one will be predictably low-scoring. Both squads will nickel-and-dime each other for three quarters, and the game will be within a touchdown in the final minutes. My brain tells me that North Dakota State’s experience will be the difference in this game, but my gut tells me that a key late turnover will make the difference for the Bobcats. My gut has been working pretty well during this bowl season. North Dakota State’s stranglehold on Frisco ends today.
Prediction: Montana State 20-17
Result: North Dakota State 38-10
Wrong on all counts. North Dakota State reigns supreme in FCS and probably will for the foreseeable future. And I can’t pick the over-under worth diddly squat. While the Bison held Montana State to a low score, they also had no problem solving the Bobcats’ defense.

Record:
Bowl season: SU – 26-13; ATS – 22-16-1; O/U – 15-24-0
Overall: SU – 618-194; ATS – 389-336-7; O/U – 346-374-12

Copyright © 2022 by Doug DeBolt.